Special Issue: IUGG Hagiwara Symposium
- Open Access
Advance short-term prediction of the large Tokachi-oki earthquake, September 25, 2003, M = 8.1 A case history
Earth, Planets and Space volume 56, pages 715–724 (2004)
Tokachi-oki earthquake in northern Japan, September 25, 2003, magnitude 8.1, was predicted six months in advance by a short-term earthquake precursor “chain” that reflects an increase of the correlation range among small earthquakes. This prediction is part of the ongoing test of a new short-term prediction method; the test covers territories of Japan, California, and Eastern Mediterranean. Qualitatively, precursory chain is a dense sequence of small earthquakes that had quickly extended over a long distance. A strong earthquake is expected within nine months after such chain is formed, in its formally defined vicinity. Chains are analyzed in conjunction with intermediate-term precursors, emerging with characteristic lead time of years. Methodology of prediction is named “Reverse Tracing of Precursors” (RTP), since precursors are considered in the reverse order of their appearance. That allows detecting short-term precursors not detectable with direct order of analysis. RTP was tested retrospectively for California, Japan, and Eastern Mediterranean, where 22 more strong earthquakes occurred during the time considered. The concept underlying RTP is interaction of lithosphere dynamics on different temporal scales. The described results enhance our fundamental understanding of lithosphere dynamics and, on the practical side, our capability for earthquakes preparedness.
Aki, K., Introduction to seismology for earthquake prediction, Proceedings of the Seventh Workshop on Non-Linear Dynamics and Earthquake Prediction, International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, preprint, 2003
ANSS/CNSS Worldwide Earthquake Catalog, produced by Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) and hosted by the Northern California Data Center (NCEDC), 1965–2003, http://quake.geo.berkeley.edu/anss.
Bird, P., Testing hypotheses on plate-driving mechanisms with global lithosphere models including topography, thermal structure, and faults, J. Geophys. Res., 103(B5), 10115–10129, 1998.
Blanter, E. M. and M. G. Shnirman, Simple hierarchical systems: stability, self-organized criticality and catastrophic behavior, Phys. Rev. E, 55(6), 6397–6403, 1997.
Bowman, D. D., G. Ouillon, C. G. Sammis, A. Sornette, and D. Sornette, An observational test of the critical earthquake concept, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 24359–24372, 1998.
Caputo, M., R. Console, A. M. Gabrielov, V. I. Keilis-Borok, and T. V. Sidorenko, Long-term premonitory seismicity patterns in Italy, Geophys. J. R. Astron. Soc., 75, 71–75, 1983.
Gabrielov, A., V. Keilis-Borok, I. Zaliapin, and W. I. Newman, Critical transitions in colliding cascades, Phys. Rev. E, 62(1), 237–249, 2000a.
Gabrielov, A. M., I. V. Zaliapin, W. I. Newman, and V. I. Keilis-Borok, Colliding cascades model for earthquake prediction, Geophys. J. Int., 143, 427–437, 2000b.
Gelfand, I. M., Sh. A. Guberman, V. I. Keilis-Borok, L. Knopoff, F. Press, E. Ya. Ranzman, I. M. Rotwain, and A. M. Sadovsky, Pattern recognition applied to earthquake epicenters in California, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 11, 227–283, 1976.
Geller, R. J., Earthquake prediction: A critical review, Geophys. J. Int., 131, 425–450, 1997.
Jin, A., K. Aki, Z. Liu, and V. I. Keilis-Borok, Brittle-ductile interaction hypothesis for earthquake loading, Abstract, Hagiwara Symposium, XXIII General Assembly of IUGG, 2003, Sapporo, Japan, 2003.
Kanamori, H., Earthquake prediction: An overview, in International Handbook of Earthquake & Engineering Seismology, Volume 81B, edited by W. H. K. Lee, H. Kanamori, P. C. Jennings, and C. Kisslinger, pp. 1205–1216, Academic Press, London, 2003.
Keilis-Borok, V. I. (ed.), Intermediate-term earthquake prediction: Models, algorithms, worldwide tests, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 61, special issue, 1990.
Keilis-Borok, V. I., Intermediate-term earthquake prediction, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 93, 3748–3755, 1996.
Keilis-Borok, V., Earthquake prediction: state-of-the-art and emerging possibilities, invited to Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 30, 2002.
Keilis-Borok, V., Fundamentals of earthquake prediction: Four paradigms, in Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction, edited by V. I. Keilis-Borok and A. A. Soloviev, pp. 1–36, Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, 2003.
Keilis-Borok, V. I. and I. M. Rotwain, Diagnosis of time of increased probability of strong earthquakes in different regions of the world: algorithm CN, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 61(1–2), 57–72, 1990.
Keilis-Borok, V. I. and P. N. Shebalin (eds.), Dynamics of the lithosphere and earthquake prediction, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., special issue, 111, 179–330, 19
Keilis-Borok, V. I. and A. A. Soloviev (eds.), Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction, 335 pp., Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, 2003.
Keilis-Borok, V. I., P. N. Shebalin, and I. V. Zaliapin, Premonitory patterns of seismicity months before a large earthquake: Five case histories in Southern California, Proc. Natl. Ac. Sci., 99(26), 16562–16567, 2002.
Keilis-Borok, V., P. Shebalin, A. Gabrielov, and D. Turcotte, Reverse tracing of short-term earthquake precursors, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 145, 1–4, 75–85, 2004.
Knopoff, L., T. Levshina, V. I. Keilis-Borok, and C. Mattoni, Increased long-range intermediate-magnitude earthquake activity prior to strong earthquakes in California, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 5779–5796, 1996.
Kossobokov, V. G. and J. M. Carlson, Active zone size vs. activity: A study of different seismicity patterns in the context of the prediction algorithm M8, J. Geophys. Res., 100, 6431–6441, 1995.
Kossobokov, V. and P. Shebalin, Earthquake prediction, in Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction, edited by V. I. Keilis-Borok and A. A. Soloviev, pp. 141–207, Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, 2003.
Ma, Z., Z. Fu, Y. Zhang, C. Wang, G. Zhang, and D. Liu, Earthquake Prediction: Nine Major Earthquakes in China, Springer, New York, 1990.
Mogi, K., Earthquake Prediction, Academic Press, Tokyo, 1985.
Molchan, G. M., Earthquake prediction strategies: A theoretical analysis, in Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction, edited by V. I. Keilis-Borok and A. A. Soloviev, pp. 209–237, Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, 2003.
Newan, W. I., A. Gabrielov, and D. L. Turcotte (eds.), Nonlinear Dynamics and Predictability of Geophysical Phenomena, Geophys. Monographs Ser. 83. Am. Geophys. Union, Washington, DC, 83, 1994
Press, F. (ed.), Earthquake Prediction: A Proposal for a Ten Year Program of Research, 134 pp., Ad Hoc Panel on Earthquake Prediction, White House Office of Science and Technology, Washington, DC, 1965.
Prozorov, A. G. and S. Yu. Schreider, Real time test of the long-range aftershock algorithm as a tool for mid-term earthquake prediction in Southern California, Pure Appl. Geophys., 133, 329–347, 1990.
Rundle, J., D. Turcotte, and W. Klein (eds.), Geocomplexity and the Physics of Earthquakes, American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, 2000.
Scholz, C. H., The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1990.
Shaw, B. E., J. M. Carlson, and J. S. Langer, Patterns of seismic activity preceding large earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res., 97, 479, 1992.
Shebalin, P., I. Zaliapin, and V. I. Keilis-Borok, Premonitory rise of the earthquakes’ correlation range: Lesser Antilles, Phys. Earth Planet. Int., 122(3–4), 241–249, 2000.
Shebalin, P., V. I. Keilis-Borok, I. Zaliapin, S. Uyeda, T. Nagao, and N. Tsybin, Short-term Premonitory Rise of the Earthquake Correlation Range, Abstract, Hagiwara Symposium, XXIII General Assembly of IUGG, 2003, Sapporo, Japan, 2003.
Sornette, D., Critical Phenomena in Natural Sciences: Chaos, Fractals, Self-organization and Disorder: Concepts & Tools, Springer Ser. Synerg., 432 pp., Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, 2000.
Sykes, L. R. and S. C. Jaume, Seismic activity on neighbouring faults as a long-term precursor to large earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area, Nature, 348, 595–599, 1990.
Turcotte, D. L., Fractals and Chaos in Geology and Geophysics, 2nd ed., 412 pp., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1997.
Uyeda, S. and S. Park (eds.), special issue, Proceedings of the International Symposium on The Recent Aspects of Electromagnetic Variations Related with Earthquakes, 20 and 21 December 1999, J. of Geodynamics, 33, 4–5, 2002.
Vorobieva, I. A., Prediction of a subsequent strong earthquake, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 111, 197–206, 1999.
Zaliapin, I., V. I. Keilis-Borok, and G. Axen, Premonitory spreading of seismicity over the faults’ network in southern California: Precursor Accord, J. Geophys. Res., 107(B10), 2221, 2002.
Zaliapin, I., V. I. Keilis-Borok, and M. Ghil, A Boolean delay equation model of colliding cascades, Part II: Prediction of critical transitions, J. Stat. Phys., 111, 3–4, 839–861, 2003.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Shebalin, P., Keilis-Borok, V., Zaliapin, I. et al. Advance short-term prediction of the large Tokachi-oki earthquake, September 25, 2003, M = 8.1 A case history. Earth Planet Sp 56, 715–724 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1186/BF03353080
- Advance short-term earthquake prediction
- earthquake correlation