Special Issue: IUGG Hagiwara Symposium
- Open Access
Gutenberg-Richter statistics in topologically realistic system-level earthquake stress-evolution simulations
Earth, Planets and Space volume 56, pages 761–771 (2004)
We discuss the problem of earthquake forecasting in the context of new models for the dynamics based on statistical physics. Here we focus on new, topologically realistic system-level approaches to the modeling of earthquake faults. We show that the frictional failure physics of earthquakes in these complex, topologically realistic models leads to self-organization of the statistical dynamics, and produces statistical distributions characterizing the activity, notably the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude frequency distribution, that are similar to those observed in nature. In particular, we show that a parameterization of friction that includes a simple representation of a dynamic stress intensity factor is needed to organize the dynamics. We also show that the slip distributions for synthetic events obtained in the model are also similar to those observed in nature
ACES home page, http://quakes.earth.uq.edu.au/ACES/
Earthscope home page, http://www.earthscope.org/
Deng, J. S. and L. R. Sykes, Evolution of the stress field in southern California and triggering of moderate sized earthquakes: A 200-year perspective, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 9859–9886, 1997.
Freund, L. B., Dynamic Fracture Mechanics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK 1990.
GEM home page, http://geodynamics.jpl.nasa.gov/
Gouyet, J.-F., Physics and Fractal Structures, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, 1996.
Hashimoto, M., Complexity in the recurrence of large earthquakes in southwest Japan: A simulation with an interacting fault system model, Earth Planets and Space, 52, 249–259, 2001.
Kanninen, M. F. and C. H. Popelar, Advanced Fracture Mechanics, Oxford Engineering Series 15, Oxford University Press, New York, 1985.
Karner, S. L. and C. Marone, Effects of loading rate and normal stress on stress drop and stick-slip recurrence interval, in GeoComplexity and the Physics of Earthquakes, edited by J. B. Rundle, D. L. Turcotte and W. Klein, pp. 187–198, Geophysical Monograph 120, American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, 2000.
Matsu’ura, M., K. Nakajima, and P. Mora, eds., Proceedings of the 2nd ACES Workshop, published by APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulation, Tokyo and Hakone, Japan, 2001.
Mora, P., ed., Proceedings of the 1st ACES Workshop, published by APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulation, Brisbane, Queensland, AU, 1999.
Nature debate on earthquake forecasting: http://www.nature.com/nature/ debates/earthquake/equake/frameset.html, 1999.
Preston, E. L., Abelian Fault Models, Ph.D. dissertation, University of Colorado, 2001.
Rabinowicz, E., Friction andWear of Materials, JohnWiley, New York, 2nd ed., 1995.
Rundle, J. B., A physical model for earthquakes, 2. Application to southern California, J. Geophys. Res., 93, 6255–6274, 1988.
Rundle, J. B., D. L. Turcotte, and W. Klein, eds., Geocomplexity and the Physics of Earthquakes, Geophysical Monograph 120, American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, 2000a.
Rundle, P. B., J. B. Rundle, K. F. Tiampo, J. S. S. Martins, S. McGinnis, and W. Klein, Triggering dynamics on earthquake fault networks, in Proc. 3rd Conf. Tectonic Problems of the San Andreas Fault System, edited by G. Bokelmann and R. L. Kovach, pp. 305–317, Stanford U. Publ., Geol. Sci., XXI, 2000b.
Rundle, P. B., J. B. Rundle, K. F. Tiampo, J. S. S. Martins, S. McGinnis, and W. Klein, Nonlinear network dynamics on earthquake fault systems, Phys. Rev. Lett., 87, 148501(1-4), 2001.
Rundle, J. B., K. F. Tiampo, W. Klein, and J. S. S. Martins, Self-organization in leaky threshold systems: The influence of near-mean field dynamics and its implications for earthquakes, neurobiology, and forecasting, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 99, suppl., 2514–2521, 2002.
Rundle, J. B., P. B. Rundle, and A. Donnellan, Statistics and stress evolution in simulations of Virtual California 2001, manuscript in preparation, 2003.
Saxena, A., Nonlinear Fracture Mechanics foe Engineers, CRC Press, Boca Raton, FL 1998.
SCEC home page, Southern California Earthquake Center, http://www.scec.org/
Scholz, C. H., The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1990.
Stein, S. and A. Newman, Characteristic and uncharacteristic earthquakes as possible artifacts: Applications to the New Madrid and Wabash seismic zones, Seism. Res. Lett., 75, 173–187, 2004.
Tullis, T. E., Rock friction and its implications for earthquake prediction examined via models of Parkfield earthquakes, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA, 93, 3803–3810, 1996.
Turcotte, D. L., Earthquake prediction, An. Rev. Earth. Planet. Sci., 19, 263–281, 1991.
Vicsek, T., Fractal Growth Phenomena, World Scientific, Singapore, 1989.
Ward, S. N., San Francisco bay area earthquake simulations, a step towards a standard physical model, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 90, 370–386, 2000.
Zoback, M. L., 1st-order and 2nd-order patterns of stress in the lithosphere—TheWorld Stress Map project, J. Geophys. Res., 97, 11703–11728, 1992.
About this article
Cite this article
Rundle, J.B., Rundle, P.B., Donnellan, A. et al. Gutenberg-Richter statistics in topologically realistic system-level earthquake stress-evolution simulations. Earth Planet Sp 56, 761–771 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1186/BF03353084
- complex systems