- Letter
- Open access
- Published:
Premonitory changes in seismicity prior to the Great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004
Earth, Planets and Space volume 60, pages 693–697 (2008)
Abstract
We studied changes in seismicity in a source region of the Sumatra earthquake prior to the earthquake on 26 December 2004. Rate increases were detected for earthquakes of M ≥ 5.0 using the ETAS method, with the assumption that independent events follow the Poisson process with at most only one rate change. Based on the declustered catalogue, we obtained consistent changes with simple Poisson models. Temporal changes in mean magnitude were obtained using the CUSUM method. b-values for three periods were calculated, taking into consideration the results of the CUSUM analysis, which showed a 10-year period of an anomaly high b-value followed by a 13-year period of a low b-value. The statistical significance of this change was confirmed by a bootstrap method. Both changes imply activation of seismicity in the source region.
References
Akaike, H., On entropy maximization principle, in Applications of Statistics, edited by Krishnaiah, P. R., pp. 27–41, North Holland, Amsterdam, 1977.
Aki, K., Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula logN = a-bM and its confidence limits, Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst. Univ. Tokyo, 43, 237–239, 1965.
Araki, E., M. Shinohara, K. Obana, T. Yamada, Y. Kaneda, T. Kanazawa, and K. Suehiro, Aftershock distribution of the December 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake from ocean bottom seismographic observation, Earth Planets Space, 58, 113–119, 2006.
Bakun, W. H., Seismic moments, local magnitudes, and coda-duration magnitudes for earthquakes in central California, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 74, 439–485, 1984.
Bilham, R., A flying start, then a slow slip, Science, 305, 1126–1127, 2005.
Efron, B., Bootstrap methods: Another look at the jackknife, Ann. Stat., 7, 1–26, 1979.
Jiang, C. and Z. Wu, Test of the preshock accelerating moment release (AMR) in the case of the 26 December 2004 Mw 9.0 Indonesia earthquake, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 95, 2016–2025, 2005.
Lay, T., H. Kanamori, C. J. Ammon, M. Nettles, S. N. Ward, R. Aster, S. L. Beck, S. L. Bilek, M. R. Brudzinski, R. Butler, H. R. DeShon, G. Ekström, K. Satake, and S. Sipkin, The great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004, Science, 308, 1127–1133, 2005.
Mignan, A., G. King, D. Bowman, R. Lacassin, and R. Dmowska, Seismic activity in the Sumatra-Java region prior to the December 26, 2004 (Mw = 9.0–9.3) and March 28, 2005 (Mw = 8.7) earthquakes, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 244, 639–654, 2006.
Ogata, Y, Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual analysis for point processes, J. Am. Stat. Assoc, 83, 9–27, 1988.
Page, E. S., Continuous inspection schemes, Biometrika, 41, 100–114, 1954.
Reasenberg, P., Second-Order Moment of Central California Seismicity, 1969–1982, J. Geophys. Res., 90, 5479–5495, 1985.
Sakamoto, Y, M. Ishiguro, and G. Kitagawa, Akaike information criterion statistics, 290 pp, D. Reidel, Dordrecht, 1983.
Smith, W. D., Resolution and significance assessment of precursory changes in mean earthquake magnitudes, Geophys. J. Int., 135, 515–522, 1998.
Tanaka, S., Tidal triggering of earthquakes precursory to the 2004 MW=9.0 off Sumatra earthquake, AOGS 2 Annual Meeting, Abstract, 58-SE-A0453, 2006.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made.
The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder.
To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
About this article
Cite this article
Imoto, M., Yamamoto, N. Premonitory changes in seismicity prior to the Great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004. Earth Planet Sp 60, 693–697 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1186/BF03353132
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/BF03353132