Skip to main content
Earth, Planets and Space
Download PDF

Volume 56 Supplement 2

Special Issue: Special section for IUGG workshop: Lithospheric Structure of a Supercontinent:Gondwana

Statistical analysis of time-distance relationship between volcanic eruptions and great earthquakes in Japan

Earth, Planets and Space volume 56, pages 179–192 (2004)Cite this article

Abstract

Volcanic eruptions preceded by seismicity, and great earthquakes (magnitude, M ≥ 7.6) within 100 km depth during a period of 123 years from 1880 to 2003 along the Pacific and Philippine Sea Plate in Japan are investigated. Correlation coefficients show that the relationship between earthquakes and eruptions (r = 0.99), and time and distance (r = −0.89) are highly correlated with 1% level of significance. The time-distance relationship between major eruptions and great earthquakes are shown by the model, Y = 40.15−14.53 log(X), where Yand Xindicate time (time interval from the starting time of a major eruption to the occurrence of the earthquake) and distance (distance from the volcano to the epicenter of the shock), respectively. Statistical analysis based on the relation shows that the eruptions occurred earlier prior to the concerned shock if the epicenter of the earthquake is nearer to the respective volcanic activity. This relation is recognized by various statistical testing procedures. Based on this relation, the crustal strain accumulation time in the estimated epicenter should be known. This suggests that eruptions may be a precursor for enough strain accumulation in the epicentral region where the increased accumulated regional strain may squeeze up magmas before breaking the crust. If this is true then the occurrence time of the shock may be predicted by a major eruption.

References

  • Blot, C., Relations entres seismes profonds et les eruption volcaniques au Japan, Bull. Volcanol., 28, 25–63, 1956 (in French).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Blot, C., Volcanism et seismes du manteau superieur dam 1’Archipel des Nouvelles-Hebrides, Bull. Volcanol., 36, 446–561, 1972 (in French with English abstract).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chronological Scientific, Rika Nenpyo, edited by National Astronomical Observations, Maruzen Co., Ltd, 2002.

  • Hocking, R. R., Methods and Applications of Linear Models, 2nd ed., 741 pp., John Wiley and Sons, Inc., NJ, 2003.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Ishida, M., Seismicity and tectonics of Japan, in Earthquakes and Seismo-tectonics of the Japanese Islands, edited by T. Hagiwara, pp. 57–85, Ka-jima Institute Publishing, Tokyo, 1989.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kaminuma, K., Correlation between volcanic and seismic activities in Kyushu, Japan, Publ. for the 50th Anniversary of the Great Kanto Earthquakes, 1923, pp. 185–197, Earthquake Res. Inst., Tokyo Univ., 1973 (in Japanese with English abstract).

    Google Scholar 

  • Kanamori, H., Relation between tectonic stress, great earthquake and earthquake swarms, Tectonophysics, 14, 1–12, 1972.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kimura, M., Major magmatic activity as a key to predicting large earthquakes along Sagami Trough, Japan, Nature, 260, 131–133, 1976.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kimura, M., Relation between Eruptions and Large Earthquakes, pp. 187, Univ. Tokyo Press, Tokyo, 1978a (in Japanese).

    Google Scholar 

  • Kimura, M., Significant eruptive activities related to large interplate earthquakes in the north western Pacific margin, J. Phys. Earth, 26, S557–S570, 1978b.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kimura, M., Volcanic eruptions and their tectonic control in Izu-Oshima and Miyakejima volcanoes, Japan, The Volcanological Society of Japan, 33(Special issue-2), S319–S329, 1988.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kimura, M., Relationship between volcanic eruption and large earthquakes in the vicinity of Japan, Annuals, Disas. Prev. Inst. Kyoto Univ., 37, B-1, 293–317, 1994 (in Japanese with English abstract).

    Google Scholar 

  • Kimura, M., Earth Science for Eruptive Activity and Seismicity, 293 pp., Ronso Press, Tokyo, 2003 (in Japanese).

    Google Scholar 

  • Latter, J. H., The interdependence of seismic and volcanic phenomena in the Caribbean volcanic arc, Bull. Volcanol., 35, 127–142, 1971.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Linde, A. T. and S. Sacks, Triggering of volcanic eruptions, Nature, 395, 888–890, 1998.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • MacGregor, A. G., Prediction in relation to seismo-volcanic phenomena in the Caribbean volcanic arc, Bull. Volcanol., 8, 69–85, 1949.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Montgomery, D. C., E. A. Peck, and G. G. Vining, Introduction to Linear Regression Analysis, 3rd ed., 641 pp., John Wiley and Sons, Inc., NY, 2001.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nakamura, K., Volcano as a possible indicator of crustal strain, Bull. Vol-canol. Soc. Jpn., 16, 63–71, 1971 (in Japanese with English abstract).

    Google Scholar 

  • Nakamura, K., Volcano structure and possible mechanical correlation between volcanic eruption and earthquakes, Bull. Volcanol. Soc. Jpn., 20, 229–240, 1975 (in Japanese with English abstract).

    Google Scholar 

  • Seno, T., S. Stein, and A. Gripp, A model for motion of the Philippine Sea plate consistent with NUVEL-1 and geological data, J. Geophys. Res., 98, 17941–17948, 1993.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seno, T., T. Sakurai, and S. A. Stein, Can the Okhotsk plate be discriminated from the North American Plate?, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 11305–11315, 1996.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Suwa, A., Eruptions in Japanese Islands, 221 pp., Kodan-sha, Tokyo, 1970 (in Japanese).

    Google Scholar 

  • Tokarev, P. I., On the focal layer, seismicity and volcanicity of the Kurile-Kamchatka zone, Bull. Volcanol., 35, 230–242, 1971.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wessel, P. and L. W. Kroenke, Ontong Java Plateau and Late Neogene changes in Pacific plate motion, J. Geophys. Res., 105, 28255–28277, 2000.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yokoyama, I., Volcanic eruptions triggered by tectonic earthquakes, Bull. Geophys. Inst., Hokkaido Univ., 25, 129–139, 1971 (in Japanese with English abstract).

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Physics and Earth Sciences, University of the Ryukyus, 1 Senbaru, Nishihara, Okinawa, 903-0213, Japan

    Md. Mahmudul Alam & Masaaki Kimura

Authors
  1. Md. Mahmudul Alam
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Masaaki Kimura
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Md. Mahmudul Alam.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Alam, M.M., Kimura, M. Statistical analysis of time-distance relationship between volcanic eruptions and great earthquakes in Japan. Earth Planet Sp 56, 179–192 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1186/BF03353402

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/BF03353402

Key words

  • Least squares method
  • correlation
  • regression
  • regional strain
  • eruptions
  • earthquakes