Figure 8

Example of MF and SV Gauss coefficients forecast obtained with 50 realizations of the stochastic core flow model. From top to bottom: \({g_{1}^{0}}\), \({h_{2}^{1}}\), and \({g_{4}^{3}}\). In black are the ensemble of COV-OBS.x1 observations (one σ uncertainties are indicated by the grey shaded area), in red the stochastic forecast realizations (one σ uncertainties are indicated by the red shaded area), in green the ensemble average COV-OBS.x1 model, and in blue the ensemble average stochastic forecast. Superimposed on the MF series (cyan stars) are the IGRF-11 (Finlay et al. 2010) MF model in 2010 and its prediction for 2015 (i.e., the MF ₂₀₁₀+5×SV _2010to2015). Superimposed on the SV series (cyan line) is the IGRF-11 average SV prediction for 2010 to 2015. These are taken from http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/IAGA/vmod/igrf_old_models.html.