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Table 5 Estimated conditional probability values for an elapsed time of 9 years (i.e., March 2015)

From: Earthquake interevent time distribution in Kachchh, Northwestern India

v

Year

Exponential

Gamma

Lognormal

Weibull

1

2016

0.07 (0.05–0.15)

0.08 (0.02–0.42)

0.08 (0.05–0.16)

0.07 (0.05–0.08)

4

2019

0.26 (0.18–0.47)

0.27 (0.07–0.88)

0.29 (0.18–0.49)

0.27 (0.19–0.28)

7

2022

0.41 (0.29–0.67)

0.43 (0.13–0.98)

0.44 (0.29–0.68)

0.43 (0.33–0.43)

10

2025

0.53 (0.39–0.79)

0.55 (0.18–0.99)

0.55 (0.37–0.79)

0.57 (0.46–0.54)

13

2028

0.62 (0.47–0.87)

0.65 (0.24–0.99)

0.63 (0.44–0.86)

0.67(0.58–0.63)

16

2031

0.70 (0.54–0.92)

0.73 (0.30–0.99)

0.69 (0.50–0.90)

0.75 (0.67–0.69)

19

2034

0.76 (0.61–0.95)

0.79 (0.36–0.99)

0.74 (0.56–0.93)

0.81 (0.75–0.76)

22

2037

0.81 (0.66–0.97)

0.83 (0.41–0.99)

0.78 (0.60–0.95)

0.86 (0.79–0.82)

25

2040

0.85 (0.71–0.98)

0.87 (0.46–0.99)

0.82 (0.64–0.96)

0.90 (0.83–0.87)

28

2043

0.88 (0.75–0.99)

0.90 (0.51–0.99)

0.84 (0.67–0.97)

0.92 (0.85–0.91)

31

2046

0.90 (0.78–0.99)

0.92 (0.56–0.99)

0.86 (0.70–0.98)

0.94 (0.88–0.94)

34

2049

0.92 (0.81–0.99)

0.94 (0.60–0.99)

0.88 (0.72–0.98)

0.96 (0.90–0.96)

37

2052

0.94 (0.84–0.99)

0.95 (0.64–0.99)

0.90 (0.75–0.99)

0.97 (0.91–0.97)

40

2055

0.95 (0.86–0.99)

0.96 (0.67–0.99)

0.91 (0.77–0.99)

0.98 (0.93–0.98)

v

Year

Inverse

Exponentiated

Exponentiated

Exponentiated

  

Gaussian

exponential

Rayleigha

Weibulla

1

2016

0.09 (0.06–0.14)

0.08 (0.07–0.08)

0.06

0.07

4

2019

0.29 (0.22–0.43)

0.28 (0.28–0.29)

0.25

0.27

7

2022

0.43 (0.34–0.60)

0.44 (0.44–0.46)

0.40

0.43

10

2025

0.54 (0.44–0.72)

0.57 (0.56–0.59)

0.54

0.56

13

2028

0.62 (0.52–0.79)

0.67 (0.65–0.69)

0.65

0.67

16

2031

0.68 (0.58–0.85)

0.74 (0.72–0.77)

0.75

0.75

19

2034

0.73 (0.63–0.88)

0.80 (0.78–0.83)

0.82

0.81

22

2037

0.77 (0.67–0.91)

0.85 (0.83–0.88)

0.87

0.86

25

2040

0.81 (0.71–0.93)

0.88 (0.86–0.91)

0.92

0.90

28

2043

0.83 (0.74–0.95)

0.91 (0.89–0.93)

0.94

0.93

31

2046

0.86 (0.77–0.96)

0.93 (0.91–0.95)

0.96

0.95

34

2049

0.87 (0.79–0.97)

0.95 (0.93–0.96)

0.98

0.96

37

2052

0.89 (0.81–0.98)

0.96 (0.94–0.97)

0.99

0.97

40

2055

0.90 (0.83–0.98)

0.97 (0.96–0.98)

0.99

0.98

  1. aAbsolute conditional probability values are presented, as the parametric uncertainties are unknown