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Table 5 Estimated conditional probability values for an elapsed time of 9 years (i.e., March 2015)

From: Earthquake interevent time distribution in Kachchh, Northwestern India

v Year Exponential Gamma Lognormal Weibull
1 2016 0.07 (0.05–0.15) 0.08 (0.02–0.42) 0.08 (0.05–0.16) 0.07 (0.05–0.08)
4 2019 0.26 (0.18–0.47) 0.27 (0.07–0.88) 0.29 (0.18–0.49) 0.27 (0.19–0.28)
7 2022 0.41 (0.29–0.67) 0.43 (0.13–0.98) 0.44 (0.29–0.68) 0.43 (0.33–0.43)
10 2025 0.53 (0.39–0.79) 0.55 (0.18–0.99) 0.55 (0.37–0.79) 0.57 (0.46–0.54)
13 2028 0.62 (0.47–0.87) 0.65 (0.24–0.99) 0.63 (0.44–0.86) 0.67(0.58–0.63)
16 2031 0.70 (0.54–0.92) 0.73 (0.30–0.99) 0.69 (0.50–0.90) 0.75 (0.67–0.69)
19 2034 0.76 (0.61–0.95) 0.79 (0.36–0.99) 0.74 (0.56–0.93) 0.81 (0.75–0.76)
22 2037 0.81 (0.66–0.97) 0.83 (0.41–0.99) 0.78 (0.60–0.95) 0.86 (0.79–0.82)
25 2040 0.85 (0.71–0.98) 0.87 (0.46–0.99) 0.82 (0.64–0.96) 0.90 (0.83–0.87)
28 2043 0.88 (0.75–0.99) 0.90 (0.51–0.99) 0.84 (0.67–0.97) 0.92 (0.85–0.91)
31 2046 0.90 (0.78–0.99) 0.92 (0.56–0.99) 0.86 (0.70–0.98) 0.94 (0.88–0.94)
34 2049 0.92 (0.81–0.99) 0.94 (0.60–0.99) 0.88 (0.72–0.98) 0.96 (0.90–0.96)
37 2052 0.94 (0.84–0.99) 0.95 (0.64–0.99) 0.90 (0.75–0.99) 0.97 (0.91–0.97)
40 2055 0.95 (0.86–0.99) 0.96 (0.67–0.99) 0.91 (0.77–0.99) 0.98 (0.93–0.98)
v Year Inverse Exponentiated Exponentiated Exponentiated
   Gaussian exponential Rayleigha Weibulla
1 2016 0.09 (0.06–0.14) 0.08 (0.07–0.08) 0.06 0.07
4 2019 0.29 (0.22–0.43) 0.28 (0.28–0.29) 0.25 0.27
7 2022 0.43 (0.34–0.60) 0.44 (0.44–0.46) 0.40 0.43
10 2025 0.54 (0.44–0.72) 0.57 (0.56–0.59) 0.54 0.56
13 2028 0.62 (0.52–0.79) 0.67 (0.65–0.69) 0.65 0.67
16 2031 0.68 (0.58–0.85) 0.74 (0.72–0.77) 0.75 0.75
19 2034 0.73 (0.63–0.88) 0.80 (0.78–0.83) 0.82 0.81
22 2037 0.77 (0.67–0.91) 0.85 (0.83–0.88) 0.87 0.86
25 2040 0.81 (0.71–0.93) 0.88 (0.86–0.91) 0.92 0.90
28 2043 0.83 (0.74–0.95) 0.91 (0.89–0.93) 0.94 0.93
31 2046 0.86 (0.77–0.96) 0.93 (0.91–0.95) 0.96 0.95
34 2049 0.87 (0.79–0.97) 0.95 (0.93–0.96) 0.98 0.96
37 2052 0.89 (0.81–0.98) 0.96 (0.94–0.97) 0.99 0.97
40 2055 0.90 (0.83–0.98) 0.97 (0.96–0.98) 0.99 0.98
  1. aAbsolute conditional probability values are presented, as the parametric uncertainties are unknown