Fig. 6

Expected size distribution of hidden potential earthquakes in global subduction zones. Red colors correspond to larger magnitudes for the expected earthquakes. Areas with low reliability have translucent colors. The lengths and colors of the vectors show the convergence rate of the plate at the subduction zone (showing the displacement vector of the overriding plate). Red circles with white outlines and open circles denote slip-deficient and sufficiently slipping grid points, respectively. Solid and broken ellipses show categories A and B areas, respectively. a The Kuril, Japan, Izu–Bonin, Mariana, and Ryukyu trenches. The areas with expected magnitudes of >9.0 are indicated by numbered ellipses. The source areas of the 1952 Kamchatka (Mw9.0) and 2011 Tohoku (Mw9.0) earthquakes are enclosed by red ellipses. b The Aleutian trench. The source area of the 1964 Alaska earthquake (Mw9.2) is enclosed by a red ellipse. c The South Sandwich trench. d The Central America (C-America) and Puerto Rico trenches. e The Peru–Chile trench. The source areas of the huge 1960 and 2010 events are enclosed by red ellipses. f The North Java, South Java, Manila, East Philippine, Molucca, Halmahera, and Sulawesi trenches. The Manila trench and a huge area in the southern part of the Java trench show expected magnitudes of >9.0. Focal areas of the huge historical earthquakes that occurred in 1868 (M9.0), 1877 (M8.8), and 1906 (M8.8) are also shown. The areas for the 1868 and the 1877 events were derived from intensity distributions presented by Comte and Pardo (1991), and the area of the 1906 event is from Kanamori and McNally (1982). g The New Britain, Solomon, New Hebrides, Tonga, and Kermadec trenches