Table 1 Forecast results using groups 1 and 2
Event | Tobs (year) | Num. of sequences | Tav − Tobs (day) | Forecast spread (day) | Twt − Tobs (day) | Forecast spread (day) | Mobs | Mav | Forecast spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B7 | 0.831445 | 5 | 4.5 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 4.78 | 0.52 |
10 | 3.8 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 9.3 | 4.79 | 0.49 | |||
15 | 3.0 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 7.8 | 4.79 | 0.47 | |||
20 | 2.1 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 7.5 | 4.79 | 0.47 | |||
B8 | 1.399565 | 5 | −37.9 | 12.0 | −37.8 | 12.0 | 4.8 | 4.85 | 0.42 |
10 | −43.4 | 13.2 | −42.7 | 13.2 | 4.81 | 0.43 | |||
15 | −41.5 | 14.2 | −41.3 | 14.2 | 4.83 | 0.44 | |||
20 | −43.0 | 15.0 | −42.6 | 15.0 | 4.82 | 0.44 | |||
B9 | 2.005906 | 5 | 65.6 | 10.8 | 66.1 | 10.9 | 5.2 | 5.13 | 0.39 |
10 | 55.9 | 19.2 | 58.5 | 19.4 | 5.08 | 0.40 | |||
15 | 53.9 | 27.1 | 56.4 | 27.3 | 5.06 | 0.40 | |||
20 | 41.3 | 32.7 | 48.1 | 33.4 | 5.00 | 0.40 | |||
B10 | 2.685848 | 5 | 103.2 | 15.5 | 104.6 | 16.0 | 4.9 | 4.80 | 0.42 |
10 | 106.7 | 35.7 | 105.6 | 35.7 | 4.84 | 0.42 | |||
15 | 102.7 | 44.7 | 103.4 | 44.7 | 4.89 | 0.41 | |||
20 | 105.6 | 55.7 | 105.5 | 55.7 | 4.88 | 0.41 | |||
B11 | 3.84531 | 5 | −3.5 | 32.2 | −3.6 | 32.2 | 4.8 | 4.71 | 0.42 |
10 | 10.7 | 46.1 | 5.7 | 46.4 | 4.74 | 0.41 | |||
15 | 30.6 | 56.1 | 20.6 | 57.0 | 4.79 | 0.41 | |||
20 | 44.9 | 74.5 | 30.6 | 75.8 | 4.81 | 0.40 |