Forecast experiment on the Kamaishi repeating earthquakes based on numerical simulations using friction law

Earth, Planets and Space

Table 3 Forecast results using group 2

Event	T^obs (year)	Num. of sequences	T^av − T^obs (day)	Forecast spread (day)	T^wt − T^obs (day)	Forecast spread (day)	M^obs	M^av	Forecast spread
B7	0.831445	5	8.8	3.6	8.9	3.6	5.1	4.79	0.47
		10	4.3	6.7	4.6	6.8		4.76	0.48
		15	1.4	8.5	1.7	8.6		4.75	0.47
		20	3.4	9.6	3.4	9.6		4.75	0.46
B8	1.399565	5	−45.0	11.9	−45.0	12.0	4.8	4.78	0.45
		10	−45.9	13.1	−45.9	13.2		4.77	0.45
		15	−46.0	14.6	−46.1	14.2		4.77	0.45
		20	−46.9	18.4	−46.8	15.0		4.76	0.45
B9	2.005906	5	3.9	7.3	4.9	10.9	5.2	4.79	0.43
		10	−4.7	12.0	−2.6	19.4		4.78	0.42
		15	−13.1	16.8	−8.1	27.3		4.77	0.42
		20	−22.9	23.1	−12.9	33.4		4.78	0.43
B10	2.685848	5	103.2	15.5	104.6	16.0	4.9	4.80	0.42
		10	80.9	32.3	87.9	33.0		4.78	0.42
		15	69.5	38.9	82.5	41.1		4.79	0.42
		20	56.3	31.5	77.7	35.1		4.79	0.43
B11	3.84531	5	−3.5	32.2	−3.6	32.2	4.8	4.71	0.42
		10	11.1	46.6	5.7	46.9		4.74	0.42
		15	30.6	61.4	19.0	62.5		4.78	0.41
		20	56.4	83.2	33.5	86.3		4.80	0.41