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Earth, Planets and Space
Fig. 5 | Earth, Planets and Space

Fig. 5

From: Predictions of the geomagnetic secular variation based on the ensemble sequential assimilation of geomagnetic field models by dynamo simulations

Fig. 5

RMS errors \(\varepsilon ^f\) of hindcasts starting in \(t_i\) and ending in \(t_f=t_i+5\) years. The predictions correspond to the full dynamic mean forecast from the assimilation (black triangles) and linear approximations (LP) based on the SV at \(t_i\) from our mean model (black squares), IGRF (green stars) and CHAOS-7 (red circles). Also shown is the mean forecast error using a steady-flow approximation after the last analysis in \(t_i\) (white triangles). The prediction errors are truncated at \(\ell =8\) and evaluated at the Earth’s surface with respect to CHAOS-7 (Finlay et al. 2020)

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