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Table 2 SV coefficients and their uncertainties based on the average SV between 2020 and 2025 from the dynamic forecast of the ensemble of dynamo models. Units are in nT/year

From: Predictions of the geomagnetic secular variation based on the ensemble sequential assimilation of geomagnetic field models by dynamo simulations

\(\ell\)

m

\({\dot{g}}_\ell ^m\)

\({\dot{h}}_\ell ^m\)

\(\sigma [{\dot{g}}_\ell ^m]\)

\(\sigma [{\dot{h}}_\ell ^m]\)

1

0

8.24

0.00

1.66

0.00

1

1

5.94

− 23.77

2.59

2.92

2

0

− 9.56

0.00

1.99

0.00

2

1

− 5.12

− 24.20

2.07

2.20

2

2

− 5.38

− 15.31

1.79

1.77

3

0

2.30

0.00

1.40

0.00

3

1

− 5.32

6.66

1.47

1.55

3

2

1.82

1.20

1.22

1.25

3

3

− 11.93

− 1.75

1.18

1.04

4

0

− 1.11

0.00

0.89

0.00

4

1

− 1.72

−1.94

0.86

1.00

4

2

− 4.18

6.89

0.76

0.81

4

3

5.31

3.72

0.69

0.68

4

4

− 4.66

− 4.68

0.70

0.75

5

0

− 0.52

0.00

0.61

0.00

5

1

0.08

− 0.45

0.65

0.68

5

2

− 0.54

3.24

0.56

0.60

5

3

0.69

0.36

0.49

0.54

5

4

1.78

3.04

0.41

0.40

5

5

2.69

0.25

0.46

0.49

6

0

− 0.63

0.00

0.34

0.00

6

1

− 0.39

− 1.15

0.33

0.36

6

2

0.28

− 1.30

0.38

0.37

6

3

1.54

− 0.77

0.31

0.29

6

4

− 1.36

0.15

0.32

0.30

6

5

− 0.12

0.13

0.25

0.26

6

6

1.58

1.30

0.30

0.30

7

0

− 0.26

0.00

0.20

0.00

7

1

− 0.32

0.33

0.22

0.22

7

2

− 0.08

0.42

0.21

0.20

7

3

0.70

− 0.30

0.21

0.21

7

4

0.15

− 0.16

0.18

0.17

7

5

− 0.64

− 1.02

0.19

0.17

7

6

− 0.79

0.13

0.15

0.15

7

7

0.64

0.15

0.20

0.18

8

0

0.22

0.00

0.13

0.00

8

1

0.47

− 0.56

0.12

0.13

8

2

− 0.21

0.16

0.14

0.13

8

3

0.37

0.15

0.12

0.12

8

4

−0.29

0.35

0.12

0.13

8

5

0.16

− 0.53

0.11

0.10

8

6

0.00

− 0.21

0.11

0.10

8

7

− 0.09

0.41

0.09

0.09

8

8

0.43

− 0.12

0.11

0.12