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Earth, Planets and Space
Fig. 9 | Earth, Planets and Space

Fig. 9

From: Testing the seismic quiescence hypothesis through retrospective trials of alarm-based earthquake prediction in the Kurile–Japan subduction zone

Fig. 9

ROC diagram for the learning period of Experiment 3. Four earthquakes having 7.5 ≤ Mw < 8.5 that occurred in 1988.0–1995.0 were used in calculating r for each of the 210 models tried. The marker shape denotes the p-value. Large red markers are used for optimal models (p < 15% and r > 0.5), listed in Table 5. The three blue curves are identical to those in Fig. 4; that is, they correspond to (f, r) that would yield p = 5%, 10%, and 15% if there were eight target earthquakes

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