Fig. 2

Results of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake. a Posterior PDFs at 60 s after the origin time. The ranges on the horizontal axis reflect the maximum search ranges. Inserted values in the upper right-hand corner denote the mean, median, and mode in the top, middle, and bottom positions, respectively. b, d Estimated coseismic fault model (mode value) at 60 and 290 s after the origin time, respectively. The black and white vectors denote the observations and calculations based on the coseismic fault model, respectively. The colors indicate the residual value between the calculation and observation of the vertical component. Focal mechanisms, in gray and black, represent the initial value for the analysis and the CMT solution issued by the JMA, respectively. The black rectangular fault model represents the coseismic fault model obtained by REGARD in real time. c Estimated time series of Mw at the 95% confidence interval. “EEW” shows the values from the Earthquake Early Warning systems issued by the JMA. The “maximum likelihood” is based on results using the actual REGARD record (Kawamoto et al. 2016)