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Earth, Planets and Space
Fig. 5 | Earth, Planets and Space

Fig. 5

From: Prediction and validation of short-to-long-term earthquake probabilities in inland Japan using the hierarchical space–time ETAS and space–time Poisson process models

Fig. 5

a Optimal MAP μ(x, y) estimate of the HIST–ETAS–5pa model on epicenter locations (colored dots) of earthquakes of M ≥ 4.0 in and around Japan for the target period 1923–2018. The color table refers to the linearized frequency, and the scale represents the probability per day and deg2. b Probability of a M ≥ 6 shock during the next 30 years in each 0.2° × 0.2° (about 400 km2) cell in inland Japan assuming b = 0.9

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