Fig. 4

Comparison between observed and modeled maximum earthquake magnitudes. a Unstandardized observed maximum earthquake magnitude, \(M_{{\text{max}}}\) (horizontal axis), versus the predicted value, \(f_{{\text{BIC}}}\) (vertical axis), at the 169 analyzed locations. The open gray circles and closed red circles indicate the training and test data sets, respectively. The error bars indicate the 95% prediction intervals. \(f_{{\text{BIC}}}=M_{{\text{max}}}\) along the black line. Samples A (South Kermadec) and B (South-Central Chile) are outliers. b Histogram of the error between the predicted and observed standardized maximum earthquake magnitudes (\(f_\text{BIC}^\prime - M_{{\text{max}}}^\prime\)). c Map of the error between the predicted and observed unstandardized maximum earthquake magnitudes (\(f_{{\text{BIC}}} - M_{{\text{max}}}\)) at the 169 analyzed locations. Warm colors indicate \(f_{{\text{BIC}}} > M_{{\text{max}}}\), and cool colors indicate \(f_{{\text{BIC}}}<M_{{\text{max}}}\). The white lines indicate plate boundaries