Earth, Planets and Space

Table 2 Mean absolute errors (MAE) of the polar motion (PMX, PMY) prediction [mas] in 2021, using the LS + AR, LSTM, LS + LSTM, and Bulletin A time series from IERS, respectively

From: Improving the accuracy of polar motion prediction using a hybrid least squares and long short-term memory model

No.	PMX					PMY
No.	LS + AR	LSTM	LS + LSTM	Bulletin A	PCT	LS + AR	LSTM	LS + LSTM	Bulletin A	PCT
1	0.257	0.676	0.284	0.269	− 5.6%	0.197	0.466	0.204	0.196	− 4.2%
5	1.603	1.898	1.690	1.563	− 8.1%	1.099	1.108	1.129	1.073	− 5.2%
10	3.046	3.289	3.152	2.892	− 9.0%	1.940	1.812	2.009	1.843	− 9.0%
15	4.593	4.531	4.374	3.988	− 9.7%	2.751	2.598	2.729	2.480	− 10.0%
20	5.751	5.793	5.546	5.033	− 10.2%	3.607	3.509	3.386	3.077	− 10.1%
30	7.995	8.362	7.414	6.809	− 12.1%	5.407	5.501	4.876	4.261	− 14.4%
45	11.483	12.561	10.995	9.227	− 19.2%	8.292	8.879	7.137	5.904	− 20.9%
60	14.915	17.281	13.778	11.260	− 22.4%	11.382	12.764	9.426	7.454	− 26.5%
90	21.950	25.895	15.419	14.619	− 5.5%	17.785	21.144	12.868	11.176	− 15.1%
120	27.506	32.397	15.685	16.819	6.7%	23.904	28.571	14.905	15.500	3.8%
180	32.933	35.620	15.904	19.148	16.9%	31.231	35.412	16.424	22.356	26.5%
270	33.364	27.344	15.926	22.318	28.6%	29.096	27.771	17.218	25.066	31.3%
320	36.116	29.332	16.393	24.096	32.0%	30.430	27.190	16.350	23.980	31.8%
365	37.491	33.456	17.086	25.770	33.7%	31.949	30.263	17.100	25.107	31.9%

The improvement represents the prediction accuracy of LS + LSTM relative to Bulletin A

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