Fig. 3.
From: Conventional N-, L-, and R-tests of earthquake forecasting models without simulated catalogs
L-test for January 2004 to December 2008. (a) Observed likelihoods of the Hazmap model are compared with the distributions of likelihoods calculated for sequences conforming to the Hazmap model. Five sets of charts depict likelihoods obtained for the year 2000 to the end of each respective year. The vertical broken line indicates the likelihood estimated with the observed earthquakes. The distribution of likelihood expected from the model is indicated with a solid line. The upper and lower 5% ranges of expected values are indicated with shading. Each year is labeled at the intersection of two lines. The ranges of the observed likelihoods due to uncertainties in the earthquake source parameters are given in normal density function form (arbitrary units) at the bottom. (b) The same as Fig. 3(a) but for the EEPAS model.