Fig. 5
From: An improved relative intensity model for earthquake forecasts in Japan
The maximum total log-likelihood of 1-year forecasts for the 20 years from 1989 to 2008 (squares; left scale), and that for the 5 years from 2004 to 2008 (circles; right scale). Horizontal axis represents the duration of the reference period. A gray square is estimated from the results of 1-year forecasts for the 16 years from 1993 to 2008, because data before 1923 are not available.