Fig. 3
Comparison between the cumulative number of events and the transformed time, which is the predicted number of events by ETAS model, for (a) the 2002 Boso catalog, (b) the 2007 Boso catalog, and (c) the 2005 Tokyo Bay catalog. Red line shows the comparison using the pre-swarm parameters, extended to the whole catalog period. Green and purple lines show transformed time using swarm and post-swarm parameters, respectively. Blue line show transformed time using the boxcar model. Black and cyan dotted lines represent the beginning and the end times of swarm, Tcp1 and Tcp2, respectively. The black diagonal line is drawn as a reference. The corresponding M-T plots are shown in the lower panels.