Table 1 The L-, N-, M-, and S-test results for the “All Japan” region. The columns “Forecast number” and “Forec/Obs in number” show the total number of forecast earthquakes and its ratio to the observed total number of earthquakes, respectively. Bold values indicate that the observed target catalog is inconsistent with the corresponding forecast. The values for the RANDOM forecasts are highlighted in light gray.
From: CSEP Testing Center and the first results of the earthquake forecast testing experiment in Japan
All Japan | L-test | N-test | M-test | S-test | Forecast number | Forec / Obs in number | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Model | γ | δ1 | δ2 | κ | ζ | ||
HIST-ETAS5pa | 0.901 | 0.945 | 0.065 | 0.950 | 0.054 | 132.69 | 1.15 |
HIST-ETAS7pa | 0.965 | 0.945 | 0.066 | 0.928 | 0.471 | 132.61 | 1.15 |
MARFS | 0.638 | 0.661 | 0.373 | 0.992 | 0.050 | 119.18 | 1.04 |
MARFSTA | 0.540 | 0.624 | 0.412 | 0.985 | 0.054 | 118.08 | 1.03 |
RI10k | 0.505 | 0.832 | 0.192 | 0.974 | 0.000 | 125.29 | 1.09 |
RI30k | 0.678 | 0.832 | 0.192 | 0.969 | 0.000 | 125.29 | 1.09 |
RI50k | 0.740 | 0.832 | 0.192 | 0.984 | 0.000 | 125.29 | 1.09 |
RI100k | 0.892 | 0.832 | 0.192 | 0.979 | 0.483 | 125.29 | 1.09 |
Triple-S-Japan | 1.000 | 0.998 | 0.002 | 0.974 | 0.711 | 149.27 | 1.30 |
RANDOM | 0.459 | 0.512 | 0.525 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 115.00 | 1.00 |