Open Access

Using a neural network to make operational forecasts of ionospheric variations and storms at Kokubunji, Japan

Earth, Planets and Space200859:BF03352071

https://doi.org/10.1186/BF03352071

Received: 30 May 2007

Accepted: 27 November 2007

Published: 11 January 2008

Abstract

An operational model was developed for forecasting ionospheric variations and storms at Kokubunji (35N, 139E), 24 hours in advance, by using a neural network. The ionospheric critical frequency (foF2) shows periodic variabilities from days to the solar cycle length and also shows sporadic changes known as ionospheric storms caused by geomagnetic storms (of solar disturbance origin). The neural network was trained for the target parameter of foF2 at each local time and input parameters of solar flux, sunspot number, day of the year, Kindex at Kakioka. The training was conducted using the data obtained for the period from 1960 to 1984. The method was validated for the period from 1985 to 2003. The trained network can be used for daily forecasting ionospheric variations including storms using prompt daily reports of K-index, sunspot number, and solar flux values available on-line.

Key words

Ionospheric forecast ionospheric storms neural network foF2