Precise prediction of polar motion using sliding multilayer perceptron method combining singular spectrum analysis and autoregressive moving average model

Earth, Planets and Space

Table 1 Comparison of the MAEs (mas) of the Bulletin A, SSA, SSA + ARMA and SSA + ARMA + MLP model

Lead time (day)	Bulletin A		SSA		SSA + ARMA		SSA + ARMA + MLP
Lead time (day)	PMX	PMY	PMX	PMY	PMX	PMY	PMX	PMY
5	1.49	1.09	10.44	11.93	1.12	0.84	0.80	0.35
10	2.85	1.75	10.88	12.31	2.20	1.63	1.57	0.66
15	4.15	2.39	11.29	12.68	3.26	2.44	2.40	1.12
20	5.06	2.85	11.66	13.04	4.30	3.24	3.28	1.71
25	5.92	3.41	12.01	13.39	5.31	4.05	4.20	2.41
30	6.66	3.94	12.38	13.71	6.29	5.02	5.14	3.37
60	10.64	6.69	13.70	15.50	11.50	9.61	10.59	8.95
120	15.35	13.72	14.52	16.63	15.53	15.15	13.62	14.53
180	17.08	21.56	15.82	16.38	16.68	16.20	14.37	15.38
240	17.49	23.90	16.40	16.76	16.44	16.03	15.25	15.35
300	20.25	22.07	16.60	15.89	16.38	15.79	16.20	15.79
360	19.37	18.88	16.82	15.56	16.63	15.58	17.71	15.94