Table 1.
From: Earthquake forecast models for inland Japan based on the G-R law and the modified G-R law
Retrospective forecasts by the MGR, Vbv, and Cbv models using a radius of 20 km. In the column “Number of grid cells,” 1, 2, and 3 indicate regions where the G-R law with variable b-values, the modified G-R law, and the G-R law with constant b-value are applied, respectively. Underlined numbers in the “log likelihood” column indicate the best log likelihood among the three models in each forecast period. In the “N-test” column, E[n] and N indicate the expected and actual numbers of target earthquakes in the forecast periods, respectively; entries marked with an “x” are rejected models with 95% significance level.