Fig. 5
From: Statistical forecasts and tests for small interplate repeating earthquakes along the Japan Trench
Frequencies of forecast sequences (left white bars), the expected number of sequences filled with qualifying events (the sum of forecast probabilities, central gray bars), and the actual number of observed qualifying events (right black bars) for every 10% range of probabilities for three trials (forecast period: 2006–2007, 2008, and 2009) for the LN-Bayes (top), the LN-SST (middle), and the EXP (bottom) models. Ns: the number of all forecast sequences, Nq: the number of all sequences filled with qualifying event, E(Nq): sum of all probabilities (expectation of Nq), MLL: mean of log-likelihood, and BS: Brier score.