Earth, Planets and Space

Table 3 Scores of R (= LL1−LL0) and dBS (= BS1−BS0) and results of tests for forecast probabilities for 12 months.

From: Statistical forecasts and tests for small interplate repeating earthquakes along the Japan Trench

Forecast model, H1	Alternative model, H0	Forecast period
Forecast model, H1	Alternative model, H0	2006.7–07.6	2008.1–08.12	2009.1–09.12	Total
R-test
LN-Bayes	EXP	13.9 AC-RJ	13.5 AC-RJ	7.09 AC-RJ	34.5 AC-RJ
LN-SST	EXP	13.2 AC-RJ	17.9 AC-RJ	2.72 RJ-RJ	33.9 AC-RJ
LN-Bayes	LN-SST	0.640 AC-AC	−4.39 RJ-AC	4.39 AC-RJ	0.618 UD-UD
dBS-test
LN-Bayes	EXP	−0.0609 AC-RJ	−0.0458 AC-RJ	−0.0230 AC-RJ	−0.0406 AC-RJ
LN-SST	EXP	−0.0558 AC-RJ	−0.567 AC-RJ	−0.158 UD-RJ	−0.0402 AC-RJ
LN-Bayes	LN-SST	−0.0051 AC-UD	0.0109 RJ-AC	−0.0072 AC-RJ	−0.00035 AC-UD

Here, AC, RJ, and UD are the same as those in Table 2. The ones on the left side indicate the results for models H1, and those on the right side indicate the results for model H0.

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